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But winning feels so good!
So here are a few tips that might help: 1.
Never forget that poker is a game of skill.
For those people who say that poker is mainly a game of luck, they should note that whilst the cards are random, and so which cards you receive in a particular hand is down to luck, we all get roughly the same cards in the long run, so the luck evens itself out.
The skills of poker, however, are not so evenly distributed.
Fundamentally, poker is a competition in decision-making.
The successful poker player combines his or her knowledge of probabilities with his understanding of psychology to help him make consistently accurate judgements and consistently logical decisions.
He then adds a little acting and other deception due poker betsson bonus opinion to make it difficult for his opponents to make their own decisions.
These skills are what determine his profits in the long-run — not luck.
Focus on the basics.
Yes, there will be some hands you can take down with a bluff, but it is your ability to make consistently good judgements about when you do and do not have the best hand that is the foundation of a profitable poker game.
Learn how to fold.
One of the most important things the average player in the average home game could do to drastically improve their game, is to learn to fold more often — sometimes a lot more often — at the very visit web page of the hand.
You may well want to play this hand.
Most of the rest of the hands, however, you should probably fold.
The key here is to take a good look at yourself: Do you actually know how many pots out of ten you are voluntarily paying into?
Chances are many players will be entering into four, five, six or even more.
It may be true that every hand has got possibilities, but in most cases, they are little more than a pipe dream.
Try to be realistic about how often that miracle flop is actually going to turn up.
Get in and win or get out.
You only really want to be in a poker hand when you are going to be there at the end, winning the pot.
This is the ideal scenario.
Failing that, the next best thing is to fold your hand at the earliest opportunity.
A lot of players spend a lot of their time chasing miracles.
And yet many players will frequently chase even more unlikely draws.
Occasionally, the right cards will turn up — but, in the long run, chasing those rainbows will cost a fortune for very little reward.
A calling station is a poker player who calls an awful lot of bets and is reluctant to ever fold, but who rarely makes any bets or raises of his own.
Betting and raising enables a successful player to make the most out of his good hands and also enables him to take down average professional poker player earnings pots with bluffs.
On the other hand, folding helps him reduce the losses on his losing hands.
Consequently, you might well improve your game by increasing the frequency with which you bet, raise or fold and cutting back on the number of times you just call.
Poker is a game of decisions, but where a lot of players come unstuck is that they dither; they put off making decisions and waste a lot of money in the meantime.
What you end up with is a classic calling station.
Look at your cards, assess the situation, make a judgement and act.
The worst thing to do is to dither whilst more decisive players effectively make your decisions for you.
Watch poker on TV and you can easily get the wrong impression of how people play.
For a start, you often see edited highlights.
Instead, they concentrate on the times when monster hands collide, when people play big with very marginal hands and when players run outrageous bluffs.
But if you try to average professional poker player earnings like that the whole time, you can lose a lot of money.
Try and have some sort of clue about probabilities.
Fortunately, most important poker probabilities can be learnt or estimated.
You will, on average, get one of these hands approximately once in every 29 hands.
If you start with a pair, you will get three-of-a-kind on the flop nearly 11% of the time.
If you start without a pair, the flop will pair one of your hole cards about 27% of the time.
And all you need to do is just multiply the number of outs you have by two and you get a rough percentage estimate for how likely it is to make your hand.
If you go all-in pre-flop, a pair is usually a big favourite against two lower cards, but only a slight favourite against two higher cards.
The concept of pot odds is simply about comparing risk with reward.
To be able to justify drawing to a hand, your pot odds should usually be greater than your drawing odds.
Control the pot odds.
In average professional poker player earnings, you want your opponents to make mistakes.
Therefore, you should be giving them plenty of opportunities to make those mistakes.
An easy way to do this is to control the pot odds they face.
This gives him the wrong pot odds to draw to his flush.
So; every time you make a bet, you should be thinking about what drawing odds your opponents are likely to have and then working out visit web page large a bet you have to make to ensure the pot odds they face are lower than their drawing odds.
This is not an advanced strategy.
You should be doing this for every bet you make.
And if you keep nipping outside for a smoke — especially during a tournament — you could be missing out on some of your best hands of the evening.
Bluffing is about recognising a good opportunity.
When you bluff, you should have a good reason for believing that a bluff will be profitable in the particular circumstances you find yourself in.
Good bluffing is also about telling a convincing story by representing a specific hand.
Try to ensure your actions throughout the hand are consistent with having those particular cards.
And if you think a bluff is a good idea, be decisive; make a large enough bet to do the job.
If you play regularly against highly-skilled players, that might be a good strategy — but playing hyper-aggressively against a typical home game poker player is often either unnecessary or totally counter-productive.
It may simply mean you are taking unnecessary risks when, given a little patience, the money is there to be had for almost no risk at all.
Have some situational awareness.
Many players rely far too heavily on what cards they have in their hand — but a hand of poker is made up of far more than just what cards you have.
How many people have entered the hand already?
Where are the most aggressive players sitting?
I can only hope that this seems obvious, but the fact is that there are many players who get so excited about their own cards, that they sometimes entirely forget to think about what other players might have.
As far as they are concerned, trips is such an amazing hand that they can forget about what anybody else has got.
And then the other guy has a straight!
Read the board and note the nuts.
In order to work out what your opponents might have, the first step is to work out what it is possible for them to have.
So, you look at the cards on the board and work out what the nuts are.
Take note of position.
And the later your position, the more information you will have about your opponents when your turn average professional poker player earnings as most of them will already have had their turn to act and the less likely it is that you will be raised by someone acting after you.
Yet what happens in many home games is that some players frequently call in early position with weak hands and often ignore the importance of position altogether.
However, before you even place a bet, you ought to be thinking about what might happen next: If someone calls average professional poker player earnings bet, what does that mean?
What will I do if they raise me?
Only then can you make a reasonable assessment of whether your original bet is likely to be a good move in the first place.
Good players have a plan for the entire hand, or at least for the main possibilities of what might happen and what cards might come up.
A common mistake, however, is for players with a moderate hand to bet such a large amount that they are only ever going to be called by average professional poker player earnings hand that beats them.
It is worth thinking through this mistake carefully, because it is amazing how often it is made.
Tactics that might work against a decent player may be completely useless against these amateurs.
Your overall style of play ought to be flexible.
You may have a particular preference for playing aggressively or very conservatively, but the tactics that work best will depend on the particular situation you find yourself in.
A good poker player looks at his opponents and picks a style of play that will give him an advantage over those particular players on that particular day and will be ready to adjust his style from one hand to the next, depending on the precise situation.
He is simply identifying the weaknesses of his opponents and choosing tactics that will exploit those particular weaknesses.
Note that failing to win money is every bit as bad as losing it.
People tend to notice when they lose a lot of money in a hand, but they often fail to notice when they play poorly in a hand they win and consequently fail to win as much as they should have done.
A common error is when a player fails to raise on the end when they obviously average professional poker player earnings the best hand.
Often, they are just so excited about winning the hand and so eager to rake in the pot, they seem to entirely forget that they have the option of raising.
The trouble is that you have still hit top pair, so you may be reluctant to let that hand go.
Often, it would have been better to have let that hand go pre-flop.
After all, what is it you expect to hit?
Build your poker skills on a wide base.
This is less than ideal, because players who base their poker skills on a wide base of different poker games, are usually the most flexible players who can most easily adapt their strategies to different circumstances.
They are also likely to be better-versed in the general opinion 888 poker in pennsylvania serious? of poker and better able to apply those broad principles to any poker game they take part in.
In tournaments, pay special attention to the size of the blinds.
In poker tournaments, the blinds keep on going up as the tournament progresses.
And the size of the blinds in relation to the size of your stack should have a considerable influence on how you should be playing your hands.
Those blinds are very valuable to you.
If you just sit around waiting for a premium hand, by the time it turns up, you may not have a big enough stack to defend your hand against a draw.
And even if you do win, it may be too late to make much difference.
And if you wait till you are desperate to make a move, you cut down your options.
If, for example, you intend to bluff, you want to bluff while you still have a big enough stack to scare people away.
Big losses at the poker table often result from this age-old error.
The proverb also applies to a game as a whole.
Many players, for example, having been outplayed in a poker game, start to stake more and more money in a desperate attempt to win their money back — throwing good money after bad.
But, if you are not amongst the worst players in the game, you should be able to identify other players making clear errors.
Perhaps the most important lesson of all is; Successful poker is all about honesty.
Poor poker players deceive themselves by telling themselves they were really unlucky when, in reality, they just played very badly.
They also tell themselves they are superb poker players when, in fact, they just got lucky with a good run of cards and some freakish outdraws.
A good poker player, however, is much more honest with himself.
He recognises when he gets outplayed.
He criticises his own play, even when he wins.
The trouble is that being honest with yourself is something a lot of people are very reluctant to do.
I hope you find these tips helpful.
But take note: Your financial decisions remain entirely your own responsibility.
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It's entirely common to go 15, 20 tournaments without cashing.
You can play great poker, sometimes over the span of a few days, and suddenly get hit with a cold deck or get unlucky and poof you are eliminated with nothing, along with your chance at a 5 or 6 figure top prize.
Then you have to suck it back up and move on to the next one.
The variance is just insane, which is why a lot of professional players are backed, or sell some of their action or swap with other players.
I played a ton online before the Black Friday days and did pretty well, and will usually try to play a few big live tournaments a year, but these days I mostly just play cash games as a fun hobby and a way to grind out some extra income.
There's less variance and the money is more consistent.
That being said, as brutal as the swings in tournaments are, cash games have nothing like the rush of running deep in a poker tournament.
So for me, cash games are the way to go if your goal in poker is to make money, but tournaments are a fun way to chase the dragon from time to time.
I personally don't think I would have the stomach to play tournaments full time though.
Then you have to suck it back up and move on to the next one.
I specialized in small, quick tournaments for this reason.
Live players still weren't used to the even faster pace of online play but with rapidly escalating blinds it was critical.
They were lulled into indecision and procrastination by the low early blinds, not realizing that they escalated quickly to force stacking out of the small players.
I tried playing in a couple of Venetian Deep Stack events and usually busted out.
I finally adapted to the slower play, longer rounds, bigger field and frankly better players to leave after two days of play with the same payout from winning one three hour Binion's tournament.
The biggest upside being able to say I got my name published in Card Player magazine.
Since for me it was just entertainment and I could here pay for my vacation in the smaller tourneys I went back to small ball.
When WSOP was in the early spring when the weather is nice in Vegas and crappy in BostonI used to go for a week and a bit every year and grind out the trip cost and then some on single table satellites.
With the advent of online poker, televised NLHE, and the main event wins by Varkonyi, Raymer, Moneymaker, and Gold, it was like the universe provided an endless stream of avid, willing, timid, and fairly predictable poker players in the weeks leading up to article source main event.
Now that WSOP's in the summer, online poker is mostly dead in the US, televised poker mania has died down, and I have kids, I don't bother going anymore, but it was definitely fun and modestly lucrative for a while in my 30s.
So many people there to play poker!
Don't forget black Friday or whatever it was called when UIGEA murdered online poker.
That was the feeder into tournament live play.
I haven't been back in at least 8 years.
Vegas doesn't care about anything but whales and slots players anyway.
For those confused, Black Friday in this context refers to the criminal case against the three largest online poker operators.
Poker is brutal no matter how you go about it.
If it's not brutal - you're simply on a hot streak, or playing in unbelievably easy games.
Poker at the end of the day, is a matter of who cracks mentally.
It is just so tedious.
They call it tilt, I call it your inner wisdom letting you know you're wasting your life away.
Yeah, I love tournament poker but can't imagine playing live tournaments for a living.
I played a ton online before Black Friday too, pretty successfully, and then was one of the top online tournament players when I got back into it for a bit while I was outside of the US a couple years back.
As a last hurrah before getting back to startups I traveled to one big live festival.
This is why I don't really like poker.
There's just too much variance.
Unless you play again and again and again there's not much correlation between skill and the winner.
I think it's why people also believe there is "beginners' luck" - there isn't really - the entire game has tons of luck.
But when confronted with someone who clearly isn't skilled but wins anyway, poker fans really don't want to face the reality that the game is mostly luck.
Another issue with poker - at least Texas Hold'em - is that the best strategy is folding 90% of the time, which is just boring.
I'm sure there are much better bluffing games.
The variance is also what allows poker to thrive and pro players to have an income though.
Since poker is zero sum really negative because of the casino's take there has to be a steady supply of losing money playing.
That means bad players have to believe they have a shot.
If average professional poker player earnings never or very rarely won against higher skilled players, they'd dry up.
Imagine casinos that had cash chess tables or basketball courts.
Would you have enough dead money willing to risk playing?
You'd get occasional fish willing to try but they'd get dunked on and go home.
Without enough new money, the game would dry up as the best players and the casino accumulate all the rest.
This is true for newbie investor after reading a book and investing in Wall-Street.
They almost always lose the money and again Charity poker rooms in southeast michigan Street releases a new easy book on investing.
I find a huge co-relation between how poker and wall street is aligned.
The difference between poker and the stock market is that the odds are in your favor in the stock market.
This plays out to between 6-8% per year.
Skill has a lot bigger edge in Omaha.
A fish that has a lot of money is called a "whale".
I always thought, are they good or too much oil money?
I would disagree with the blanket statement that folding 90% of the time is optimal, and can be discouraging to new players who are interested in learning poker.
Good players generally play around 20% of their hands, but even that vastly changes based on how aggressive the player is.
Also, there is much average professional poker player earnings to factor in than just the hand you are dealt.
You might want to play a tighter range play less percentage of hands in early position let's say first or second to act in a betting roundcompared to being last to act where you might want to play a higher percentage of your hands.
Only play a high pocket pair or AK, and play them aggressively.
Your hope being to take people 1 vs 1 for all the money you can.
You don't need to be any cleverer than that until people pay enough attention that they won't call you unless they think that they have you beat.
Then you will have to go for a wider range and start to play a better strategy.
Even that is highly dependent on your post-flop skill.
Marginal hands and drawing hands like small pairs and small suited connectors can be highly profitable on loose tables if you're confident in your reading ability.
Playing like a nit is the easiest way to play profitably on a loose table and has dramatically lower variance, but widening your range and playing intelligently post-flop can often be substantially more profitable.
I used to be profitable in the golden days being a nit and just letting the huge swaths of players pay me off.
So many all-ins to bluff me off while holding top set, nut straight, or nut flush.
Just recently got back playing and am trying to learn to play against real players.
I'm down overall after about 50 hours of play, but not very much.
Poker is much harder now and it's hard to find tables that will happily pay off nitty play ad infinitum.
I'd make a list of concepts you should learn about, but I think it'll be easier for me to make a list of books you should read: The Mathematics of Poker Chen and Ankenman Applications of No-Limit Poker Janda Expert Heads up No-Limit Hold 'em Tipton, this one is nice as the author is a Computer Scientist and also has a course on building a solver.
Professional No Limit-Hold 'em Flynn, Miller, Mehta Finally, you should get a membership to something like Upswing or RIO to help synthesize the information into a useful framework for play.
Also, you'll want access to something like PIO or Pokersnowie for analysis of your hands.
It gives fantastic advice that is still relevant and is extremely readable.
Covers a wide range of topics and came widely recommended to me.
It's all about ranges.
You're never going to succeed with a nitty style simply because it's going to immediately show up in a million different ways on peoples HUDs.
People are going to push you hard and immediately give up immediately whenever you fight back, unless they have the nuts.
Let's take a very simple toy game.
You are dealt a 1 to 3 in order of increasing strength.
The deck has one of each card, so if you have a 3 your opponent does not.
We have one round of play with only a bet or a fold allowed.
The goal of our game is simply to maximize the number of mistakes our opponent makes.
A mistake would be folding when he has the better hand, or calling when he has a worse hand.
We're going to assume we're playing against a good and logical player.
We can analyze this game pretty easily.
Our opponent is always going to call when he has a 3 since he can beat anything.
And he's amusing dog track naples poker opinion going to call with a 1 since he can't beat anything.
So our chance for an edge comes with 2s.
We need to get him to call our 3s with his 2s.
If we only bet our 3s, this is probably not going to work.
He'd suddenly see that everytime you go to showdown, you end up with a 3.
And indeed he probably would not even default to calling with 2s because, from his perspective, he only beats a 1 anyhow.
So we need to create a more balanced range that makes it where this decision is not so easy.
One idea is to bet our 3s and 2s.
But this would be a big mistake for reasons already alluded to.
Imagine we have a 2.
He has either a 3 or a 1.
He's going to be able to play perfectly.
No, betting a 2 will never lead to a mistake.
So the only other option we have is to bet our 1s!
And yeah this is where you start to see the optimal strategy.
Now if he folds his 2s when we bet, he's making a mistake 50% of the time!
Interestingly enough, if he calls with his 2s he's also making a mistake 50% of the time!
It's only by creating a balanced range did we create a strategy where our opponent is forced to make mistakes.
And in regular poker too a general strategy is to aggressively play the top and bottom of your range.
The tough decisions of course come in with the middle of your range.
But you generally do not want to mix the middle and top of your range for reasons similar to this toy game.
You might push your opponent off a '2', but in general you're making it pretty easy for him to play correctly.
Your max edge is pretty limited in poker.
Even if you're playing against horrible players, you can only win for x bets per 100 hands big blinds per 100 hands is the general measurement of profit - e.
When I quit playing, sites were on a sharp upward trajectory of stupidity with rake.
I call it stupidity because I think they felt jacking up the rake was an optimal decision business wise.
Winning players take money out of the games, whereas when bad players play all money eventually gets taken in rake.
But they miss the meta.
Many of those bad players are playing because they want to be one of the good players.
That good player might take some 6 or 7 figures out of the games, but in turn inspire deposits from bad players that might be many times that.
And then at my lower stakes games I found comparable players to aspire to emulate and so on up the stakes.
Like so many industries, optimize to maximize your profit and you very often end up doing the exact opposite!
Right, totally agree with you.
Very situational and dependent on the skill level of others, whether you need to play GTO or not, tournament vs cash, how deep you are in a tournament, how many BB you have left, etc.
A game of poker is not one hand of poker.
It is typical in poker games to be all in and have a 70% chance of winning.
If you are playing a bad player and you go all in 5 times against this person with a 70% chance of winning is there any luck involved?
To me it looks more like printing money.
You should not be folding 90% of the time.
Depends how closely matched people are.
The skill is all in getting people to play with you more than once : And if you ever watch casino games -- it's just a constant money spigot from fish read more sharks.
Beginners luck is notable because most of the time unskilled players get bled dry very quickly.
When a beginner makes all of the rookie mistakes but still wins out of sheer dumb luck then people take note.
But then as you note the skill cap isn't very high.
Once everyone figures out the strategy it goes back to being mostly luck and who has the biggest bank account to ride out the bad times.
That's what I always appreciated about professional poker players.
Their patience and their emotional regulation.
Both of which made me terrible at the game.
Patience and discipline are probably present within anyone who manages to survive as a pro for more than a couple years, but it's not a guarantee.
There's a reason the term "degen" for degenerate gets thrown around so much in gambling circles.
This includes multiple people who each have multiple WSOP bracelets.
Oddly enough it's a ace poker solutions login way to learn both.
Or at least putting cash on the line gives you the incentive to do so.
Another game I like recommending is Fluxx.
It teaches you how to lose.
The game is very chaotic and there are things that can happen which cause you to just lose.
There is some amount of skill involved, but you can be forced in a situation where you cause someone else to win randomly.
You learn to divorce your efforts from the immediate results and to accept loss and move on.
Partly because the games are pretty quick.
While the swings in tournaments are brutal, they're nothing vs having a break even or small losing streak for 200k hands in cash games.
I've had a few of those during my years of playing cash games professionally and when they happen you start to questioning why you're even playing, why even try to win, what are you doing with your life etc.
Variance is a bitch.
Even if you are winning and can tolerate the grind, as soon as you go up in stakes continue reading lose most or all of your edge and variance goes way up.
The ugly truth about poker is its only fun if there are fish feeding chips to the good players.
As soon as it gets truly competitive you might as head to the roulette tables because at-least there you have consistent think, unibet community poker are and don't have to grind out hands for hours to get your gambling kicks.
It's technically a type of cheating, but it's used here to mean profoundly bad luck.
A cold deck is one that has been rigged to the advantage of one player, and then swapped in after the cut and shuffle hence its "coldness".
Typically the deck would be stacked to give the victim a fantastically good hand, but the cheater one that's slightly better.
The victim would bet a great deal thinking their hand was good only to lose at the end.
Players now use the term to describe the rare occasions when someone loses with a particularly strong hand in a fair game.
Regarding your last paragraph, that would be a bad beat.
A cold deck is a string of poor cards, perhaps an entire sitting without getting any strong hands.
GP was just distinguishing behind two kinds of bad luck - getting "cold decked" is being set up, where you're going to lose a massive pot no matter what because you get a huge hand when someone else has a better one.
I used to play a lot of poker online back in the day, two lessons stuck with me: Speaking to the variance of the game: "Eventually you will run worse than you ever thought possible" Poker teaches, contrary click at this page most business literature, to not be results oriented.
It is the decision not the result that matters.
I'm not sure how many readers I would have if I tried to explain it in a book, but I'm tired to the point that I don't read the books, just the covers about how everything will be ok if you just wish.
When you just learn that sometimes people fail even having taking the best possible decision at any point, you get another perspective for your life.
It emphasises that a bad result does not have to be the result of a bad decision.
I haven't read the book, but if there's anything I'd trust her advice on, it's how to always position yourself one or two steps away from the fall guy.
It's A++ and is a great mindset shift for business.
Make high percentage decisions, and don't discount a decision if it was a good decision but the outcome happened to not work out.
Annie Duke calls it 'Resulting'.
I am about halfway through her book "thinking in bets".
Recommended read so far.
That's one of the big problems with self-help material or other advice.
Instead of telling you that you will have the best chances for success they give a guarantee and if you fail they will tell you that you did it wrong.
Means you should always do your best source there is still no guarantee for the expected result.
Super insightful and eye opening when I finally wrapped my head around it.
I've noticed this laddering Counterstrike and Overwatch.
Individual losses are frustrating, especially when you feel you made the right moves.
But if you keep making the right moves, you will eventually win more than you lose in the long run.
You just need to have the determination and drive to stick with it.
If you have enough knowledge, confidence in said knowledge, and the discipline to consistently apply it, you will know how much money is required to make it a near certainty that won't happen.
It's also kind of the philosophy behind "fail fast and often".
The outcome of any given decision is affected by so many things that all have to go right, it might as well be random, the only mistake is not making the decision.
Eventually, things will line up if you just keep swinging.
Being best friends with some of the best in the world +1M earnings I really want to emphasize this.
I've seen my friends be happy after loosing a hand that would have won them an extra 70k in a tournament and really mean it when they say: I'm happy because I played that well, no matter the outcome.
It's all about playing a lot.
Eventually, statistics pay off.
To maximize expected value EV.
You can go all in with AA pre-flop and get a bad beat from someone with 27o.
While the result is bad you lost this timeyou made a +EV decision because you were ~80% favorite to win so over the long run this move will actually be profitable.
But a key aspect of using the expected value idea is that you have to be able to make lots of these bets.
If you have a good expected value decision but only make it once or twice, you could just get burned by luck.
Only if you can make that same high percentage play many times does this work.
The book Antifragile is all about this.
His advice for entrepreneurs specifically is to "avoid your risk of ruin".
Starting a business is never guaranteed to succeed, and if you stake your entire life savings on one business venture and take out loans, you could just get unlucky regardless of EV.
If you, say, kept a part time job and worked on your business in the rest of your time and had infinite runway, you'll eventually succeed if you don't quit.
This idea has strongly impacted the way I face decision making.
I really like this way of thinking!
It gives an air of clarity and calm to your decision making because you are looking at the big picture, which is really hard to do.
I'm seeing a lot of responses related to EV.
Is this an evolutionarily stable strategy?
Is there any way for a minority to exploit every one's focus on EV?
I understand that, mathematically, this sounds ridiculous.
But I'm wondering if, psychologically, there's a way to exploit everyone's EV mindset.
So the first thing to mention is that psychology has very little to do with playing good poker.
Secondly we'll define perfect poker as game theory optimal poker.
Game theory optimal poker better known as GTO poker is by definition unexploitable.
In the long run, two people playing GTO poker against eachother neither player will win money.
GTO poker is not necessarily the form of poker that will make the most money.
Given that 99% of the time you are playing versus amateurs who do not know sound poker strategy you can adjust your play style in order to exploit the mistakes of the other players.
When you adjust you are actually exposing yourself to better players.
Better players can identify how you are adjusting to take advantage of bad players and in turn adjust themselves to take advantage of the weaknesses you are introducing into your game.
Even worse when you have a set against two pair with one card to come and the only card to help the other guy is the higher of his two pair and it hits with all your money in.
About a 95% favorite.
Not a poker player, but I think you don't focus on realized results, you have to focus on expected results.
What is gone is gone.
Let's say you play texas hol'em, you go all-in with AA in the first round and lose.
The expected payoff was positive even if you have lost.
And if you were given the chance to play again, you should keep playing the same way.
Confidently make the correct decision every time and trust that your edge will pay off in the long run.
This is the 1 thing I learned from being a serious and competitive Scrabble player.
In poker terms: you can't judge by winning or losing, only by whether your decisions were +EV or -EV.
Results are often governed by factors you have no control over or knowledge of.
If you get unlucky, it may not be because you made a bad decision.
Annie Duke one of the top players of all time has a book called thinking in bets that examines this as a central thesis.
As GP said, you focus on making the correct decision given the circumstances.
Learning to stick to the plan after getting crushed for weeks or months is something that can instill the worst doubt in the most confident of people.
Learning to separate the feeling of results both highs and lows from the act of playing was one of poker's toughest lessons.
This is evidence of how smart I was in making this decision.
That is indeed a very valuable lesson!
Online poker was really interesting before Black Friday.
I used to play back then.
Nothing crazy, about 60,000 hands of NLHE at low stakes cash games for fun.
But the really interesting thing to me was how successful the video learning platform SAAS business was for Poker.
These sites started to pop up where high level players would record their sessions and talk through their hands, then you paid per month for access to these videos.
It was one of those niches that lined up perfect for a SAAS business.
No shortage of games, lots of online pros playing with different styles, and some of them were really good at talking through their thought process.
All they had to do was play which they were doing already and comment on their hands.
I remember cardrunners and deucescracked!
Did you win a lot?
I came out ahead in the end but it wasn't a lot.
I still remember how gratifying it was to purchase PokerTracker with some winnings.
All they know is the information that you convey.
The game is not over when you lay all your cards on the table.
Until somebody is in position of calling your bluff and you're busted.
IMHO poker is about bet optimization and risk management.
To take as much as possible with the lower risk possible.
It's a common belief that women are more sensitive to emotional cues than men, but I've never heard it put like this.
Poker is completely dominated by men, so I don't know what that is referring to.
Poker is hardly about social cues - some of the best players simply sit staring at the same spot and wait a very similar amount of time for any non-trivial decision.
It's not very exciting, but boy is it effective.
I used to railbird the likes of Tom Dwan durrrIvey, Patric antonious patoniousilary sahamies etc.
Durrr even had the million-dollar challenge with jungleman Daniel Cates.
I think he lost it.
These were the guys who understood the game on a different level and basically cleaned-out live televised poker cash games poker after dark anyone?
I aspired to be like them mostly for the wrong reasons but was average professional poker player earnings busy being a phd student.
I heard they go to Macau to play live cash and some were even investigated for money laundering.
Wondered what happened to those guys.
In the article, she is quoted as saying that winnings from poker can be taxed at 60%.
But I Googled it and the first few sites that I clicked on say more like 25%.
What am I missing?
Professional gamblers are supposed to pay self employment tax, which is 15.
So that's a top federal rate of 37%, plus -- she's presumably a New York City resident -- another 8.
That's about 65% gross, then once you factor in the deduction.
So she's not wrong, but she'd only be hitting those numbers if she won a really big tournament or two.
useful ameristar kansas city poker tournaments are big https://chakefashion.com/poker/poker-three-bet.html employment tax hit is for SS, and that maxes out well before she gets anywhere near the 37% rate.
And it's not 37% for entire ride.
Nevertheless I'd wager that you're mostly spot on and she's adding in the top local rates and applying it to the first dollar of income.
I used to believe this sentiment about 8 years ago, but after many republican presidents, our nation is only further in debt.
Honestly, it is for ordinary wages also.
The self-employment tax is basically the same as the employee and employer portions of the FICA taxes.
I think the only difference is that the self-employment tax basis is the before tax income while the wages tax basis is after the employer portion article source already been paid.
Someone correct me if my figures are wrong, her total tax rate all-in based on NYCappears to be closer to 41%.
Depending on whether you're filing as a professional or not, you may be paying self-employment tax.
Edit: I think you can't carry over losses from prior years, so if you lose money one year and make money the next, your taxes on your net earnings can be higher.
Rule of thumb for professional poker players: If you don't have a profitable tax year, it is time to quit.
I wouldn't say she won that money, I'd say she earned it.
Lottery one wins at and is pure luck.
Poker is some luck but mostly skill and persistance.
FWIW, she refers to it as earnings and income in the quotes in the article.
Yeah, the important thing is to ignore any number you ever see in a headline about poker winnings, because it basically just means gross revenues.
It says nothing at all about whether someone actually made money.
Okay, so it's pretty hard to lose all of a really big score, but the sort of people who make them are also disproportionately likely to be able to lose them in a hurry as well.
I never though about it that way.
Where I live there's a commercial for online Casino "Mr Green" where a woman hit a 2,5 million approx.
USD jackpot, and 2 years later she won 5 million USD.
The commercial was reported for fraud by someone of the public because it was unbelievable, but the casino showed for the investigators that the winnings were real.
However, guessing that the woman probably played for a lot of her winnings, a second jackpot is not that improbable.
And I guess she didn't stop there either.
That was a game of pure luck though, and Poker seems to be somewhat equal that off golf in skill vs luck at top level.
You can win something with skill.
The better team in wins the game.
You also win an auction without luck.
And if the superior team could beat its opponent, on average, 2 out of 3 times they meet, the inferior team will still win a 7-game series about once every 5 match-ups.
There is really no way for a sports league to change this.
The saying "that's why they play the game" applies.
You can get around it by defining the better team as the winner of the game but then "the better team wins the game" is tautological.
It just isn't the same any more, all the real players know the theory AND can read people.
After always wanting to play poker in a casino, 2 years ago I did.
I liked the experience and I will not play again in a casino: - dealer is really quick.
It's stress and you can't think - you can see super quick who will lose all at the end of the day and who is here to grab it from the others - they don't like to talk just Don't see the appeal to learn to become so much better so that I might become good.
Prefer to just go to work Hmm.
I played online poker as a kid, between 16 to 18 for negligleble amounts.
When I came into the casino, I was nervous but my math mind took over.
I did well enough to get in the money of sit 'n go tables.
I got awkward in the beginning, by unintentionally straddle betting and violating all kinds of other table rules that I didn't know.
But that irons out quite quickly.
It's a fun experience to feel awkward and realize you're still going to go away with the price.
On a related note, is anyone familiar with any decent online poker app which is not scummy?
I'm OK with ads in this space, or a one-time payment, but not in-app purchase of chips - I played Pokerist for a week, and I'm pretty sure they switch the choice of tables after a while to bomb people and get them to buy chips.
There's a great video by Jon Bois in his "Pretty Good" series about poker tournaments and he touches on the subject of internet poker too: Great article with many insights that I never would have expected!
That last line is interesting, especially when compared to mutual funds.
I wonder how comparable poker outcomes at a tournament or many tournaments over time compare to an active fund manager?
And then that leads me to wonder what a simple ETF comparison would be in poker - someone who always calls?
It would be interesting to see how that "ETF" poker player would compare the the rest of the people in a tournament.
Obviously a top poker player will not fail out early very frequently, so that's one difference, but on average, what does the "average" poker player at a tournament look like number wise?
I'm not super familiar with how ETFs work, but I'm guessing the parallel would be ETFs as ABC players making safe, low variance plays, while the actively managed funds would be a pro looking to capture all of their equity edges, regardless of the assumed variance.
It is well known how they respectively fare in tournaments - the ETF players make it into the money at a somewhat higher rate, but will typically have a middling to low stack with little hope of making a deep run, so they have a lot of low but positive ROI results - a mincash will typically be around 50-100% ROI.
However they still may not eke out enough cashes over the long run to be +ROI.
The Hedge Fund players on the other hand tend to bust out earlier but when they do run well will amass a huge stack and be well positioned to make a run at winning the whole thing - most of their results will be losses, but because of the super steep payout structures of tournaments, a single big-field victory can be well over 10000% ROI, so a single "bink" can overcome dozens of losses.
Sounds like you just described "MoneyBall" : Seriously, though - thanks for the insight.
Hadn't thought of comparing to a hedge fund, and after reading your description, it seems obvious.
So, one index may just be "buy all the companies that have dividends", or "buy all companies that have a price to earnings ratio greater than average", or "buy all companies listed on the US stock market".
I guess in poker it could be "call on everything", or "fold unless you have at least a three-of-a-kind".
Basically, it would be mechanical.
So maybe there could be something complicated average professional poker player earnings "bet 1% of your holdings whenever you had a pair, and bet 2% if at least one player folds.
This is evidence of how smart I was in making this decision.
There's a lot of time and money going into poker bots and other types of automatic assistants and monitoring of games to find fish etc etc.
Anything you can think of is there.
And of course on the other side of the story, a lot of effort goes into finding and average professional poker player earnings bot accounts, proving that collusion is happening etc.
Poker bots have been around for a while.
They're more or less unbeatable longterm in 1v1 games last I checked.
Go is pretty good at "life lessons" too.
The game is over when both players decide it is over skipping a turn.
Its usually not worth it to try to kill opponents: the winning strategy is to typically capture territory.
There's always more territory especially in the early game rather than aiming for conflict.
You've got to know when to fight battles, you've got to know when to sacrifice pieces.
The entire opening is basically tradition and still has no unifying theory there's 3-4 opening and a Joseki for how professionals seem to play, but there's no hard proof that this is the optimal strategy.
So its still a very open-ended game with a lot of unknowns.
Is one of those life lessons "stop playing poker"?
Because in my many hours frittered read more in card rooms, I never once thought "these people have it all figured out.

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He was arguably the ultimate average professional poker player earnings nomad - travelling the four corners of the globe funded by his talent for beating the best players in the world in high-stakes online poker rooms.
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And lastly he says, he has no regrets.

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