馃 Blackjack Probability: What do you Need to Know to Have an Edge?

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In blackjack, if you count cards, it's very easy to tell if other players are counting.. You assign each card a value when counting and then add to the running. then this is a positive sign that someone is counting (but in no way conclusive).. They are expected to win in the long run, but even while counting聽...


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Blackjack: Finding Expected Values of Games of Chance with Cards - Video & Lesson Transcript | chakefashion.com
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How much does insurance mathematically affect the game?
The game isn't designed to operate that way.
If this game exists, I'm sure there are people who would dearly love you to delete your post.
That is worth an extra unit every 42 hands or so, or an increase in expected value of about 2.
I expect you're getting a flood of PM's by now, offering to buy the name of the casino or machine maker and model.
I would blackjack stragety forum members exercise proper skepticism, especially given that this is a new member.
Let me remind the forum that flagging for reasons that you don't want a post read is not an acceptable reason, except for the original poster.
We are able to tell who flags positive expected value blackjack post.
It is a suspension-worthy offense.
Thanks Wizard for answering my question.
Obviously I knew that the "loophole" benifits the player, but no one around these parts were exactly sure just how the math worked out, and more importantly if it helps enough to create positive EV to make it worth it to play in the long-term.
The continous shuffle along with the fact that it's electronic blackjack render counting obsolete, so the real question is even if someone were to use perfect basic strategy, could one gain an edge?
To reply to Sabre, I understand your point, but that's why I left out the name and location of the casino.
I was asking the question from more of a mathematical perspective.
What happens when the dealer does have a blackjack?
When the dealer doesn't have bj, by releasing the button with the correct timing, the bet won't count.
Very briefly, Once insurance is closed, the dealer will go into an animation before they reveal their card, and the type of animation gives away whether they have blackjack before they flip their card.
By holding the yes selection down akin to holding down your mouse clicker instead of clicking on a linkit doesn't register your selection and it briefly still allows you to choose during the beginning portion of the dealer animation.
So by releasing or holding onto if there's bj the button with precise timing prior to the flip tipped off by the dealer animationyou can avoid paying for insurance.
I guess the ultimate question for Wizard and why I posted this on the forum in the first https://chakefashion.com/blackjack/blackjack-perfect-pairs.html is to discern whether or not it would be worth it from a mathematical perspective to spend the time, energy and money on this bj game given the "loophole"?
Wizard did mention that it does add about a 2% EV, but is that enough to make it a positive EV game overall?
What's the most you can positive expected value blackjack per hand?
Do you know the other blackjack rules, especially what does a winning player blackjack pay?
It's a 10 min I believe 500 max8 deck game continuous shuffle, bj pays 3 to 2, can split only twice DAS permitteddealer hits on soft 17 I'll assume no re-splitting aces or surrender.
That gives us a house edge of 0.
Every time that happens the player gets an extra unit.
So overall house edge of -0.

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Expected value for blackjack. In the game of blackjack, the odds of winning each hand are slightly less than 50 percent. As you play an infinite amount of hands, you would always lose money because you would win less than 50 percent of the time.


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The good news (if you're a winning player) is that the more hours you play,. Going back to our original example of $25 EV per hour, we would find our N0 by聽...


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Does blackjack card counting really work? Part 1

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When this EV calculation is performed for a 1-unit amount, the negative. will even offer a promotion that gives the astute player a positive expectation.. Blackjack, the most popular of all table games, offers the skilled player聽...


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How Expected Value Works in Gambling – Everything You Need to Know
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Expected value EV is one of the most important concepts in gambling to understand 鈥?especially if you have aspirations of being a professional gambler of any kind.
Other gamblers 鈥?those with the worst of it 鈥?will eventually lose all their money if they keep playing.
A concept related to expected values is risk and the tolerance of risk.
This post explains what expected value is, specifically, and it also explains how you should use this concept to inform your gambling decisions.
You have 3 things to consider when estimating the expected value of a bet.
The first of these is.
You might have a 50% chance of winning a bet, a 75% chance of winning, or a 5% chance of winning.
None of these by themselves tell you what the expected value of the bet is.
This is usually expressed as a ratio in odds format.
For example, if you bet on a specific number in roulette, the payoff is 35 to 1.
None of these factors by themselves describe your expected value.
You must look at them in aggregate.
Most gambling games are games of incomplete information, so your ability to estimate which bets are +EV versus which bets are 鈥擡V has a huge effect on your success as a gambling pro.
The classic example is a bet on a positive expected value blackjack toss.
This is how all casino games work, by the way.
If you add the 2 together, you should have a total of 0.
If you have any other total, you did the math wrong.
I recently read Poker Winners Are Different by Alan Schoonmaker.
Here was the question.
You have 9 opponents.
You push all-in preflop.
How many callers are you hoping for?
You can choose any number between 1 and 9.
I asked a couple of friends this question via text.
One of se 21 como blackjack juega got it correct 9and the other guessed 5.
But the only correct way to get the answer to this is to look at the expected value of the various outcomes.
I understand people who answer 1 or 2, by the way.
I was taught that you raise preflop with a strong hand like that to narrow the field.
In fact, each player who calls lowers your probability of winning the pot.
But expected value has more to consider.
Your return on investment ROI is much better, too.
I write about gambling, so the explanations and examples I use are strictly gambling-related.
In other words, I talk about expected value in terms of dollars.
Mathematicians who specialize in probability have a broader definition.
You assume a perfect series of 6 rolls.
When you factor variance in, you might get your pocket aces cracked a dozen times in a row.
Casinos use this principle daily.
There was a time when you could get into some nice +EV positive expected value blackjack on the internet by using a casino signup bonus.
When you sign up for an online casino bonus, the casino gives you extra money in your account to reward you for signing up.
Of course, positive expected value blackjack were required to make a certain number of wagers before being allowed to join. atlantic city blackjack tips sorry any money out.
But if you understand that the house edge in blackjack is very low if you use basic strategy, you could easily clear that wagering requirement with really low expected losses.
They started limiting the games and the action which counted toward those wagering requirements.
They also increased the amount you were required to wager positive expected value blackjack cashing out.
But then assume that the casinos increased the wagering requirements from 15 times to 30 times your deposit bonus.
The expected value for the casino is to win all your money and then some.
Even with a lot of variance, over time, the casino expects to come out way ahead.
Understanding expected value is how you understand that.

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In this video we learn about games of cards, and how to calculate probabilities. We look at the game of Blackjack and calculate the probability of...


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Expected Returns in Infinite-Deck Blackjack
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Player's or more rarely the casino's expected rate of win or loss, usually given. A card counting system is balanced when the sum of the card point values for.. When the count is very positive, the Big Player or "BP" will come to the table and聽...


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Plus, get practice tests, quizzes, and personalized coaching to help you succeed.
Coming up next: Poker: Finding Expected Values of High Hands You're on a roll.
Keep up the good positive expected value blackjack />In this video we learn about games of cards, and how to calculate probabilities.
We look at the game of Blackjack and calculate the probability of getting certain hands.
In addition we demonstrate how to calculate the expected value of a game that involves betting.
Drawing Cards and Dependent Probabilities Calculating probabilities with games of cards can be quite complicated depending on the game and the amount of players.
In this video, we will simplify the games for ease of calculation.
Suppose you draw two cards from a standard deck of 52 cards, what is the probability they are both Aces?
Just in case you were not sure, a standard deck of cards has 4 suits called diamonds, hearts, clubs and spades.
Thus, there are 13 cards of each suit numbered from 2 to 10 and then the face cards of Jack, Queen and King.
The final card, Ace, is also considered 1.
So, we are looking for two aces.
Even though two cards are being dealt, to calculate the probability, they must be thought of as two cards being dealt one after the other.
Let's call them card 1 and card 2.
Since there are 4 aces in the pack and article source cards, the probability that card 1 is an ace is 4 out of 52.
Assuming we do not replace this card, there are now 51 cards left in the pack and only three Aces left.
Thus, the probability that card 2 is an Ace is 3 out of 51.
When the probabilities change like this from one event to another, we call them dependent events.
To calculate the final probability, we multiply the probabilities above since we want an Ace and an Ace.
So the final probability of getting two Aces when you are dealt two cards topic www blackjack billy run apologise a standard deck of 52 is: 4 out of 52 multiplied by 3 out of 51, which equals 12 out of 2,652, which simplifies to 1 out of 221, or about 0.
Thus, there is a 0.
Now let's look at something a little more complicated, like the game of blackjack.
Blackjack James wants to learn how to win at the game of blackjack.
Another name for this game is 21.
The idea is to get as close to 21 points with the sum of the cards dealt to you from a standard deck of 52 cards.
In blackjack, positive expected value blackjack 21, each card is worth the same amount of points as the number shown on the face of the card.
However, the face cards, Jack, Queen and King, are worth 10 points each, and Aces are worth either 1 or 11 points, depending on what you need to make the sum as close to 21 as possible.
The complete rules of blackjack in a casino are more complicated, but let's examine a simple game to understand how the probabilities work.
James is dealt two cards from a standard deck of 52 cards.
Let's assume he is the only person playing this game.
If he gets an Ace and a face card or an Ace and a Ten he will have a sum of 21, which is called blackjack!
After every game, the cards are replaced and the pack reshuffled.
If James continues to play this game, what can he expect to win or lose in the long run?
To calculate the expected this web page of this game, we first need to understand how cards work and find the probability of getting an Ace and a face card or Ten.
There are two scenarios to consider: Either James gets the Ace as card 1 and then he gets the face card or Ten as card 2, or he gets the face card or Ten first as card 1 and then the Ace as card 2.
Either one of those combinations gives James the winning hand.
So what is the probability of getting this winning combination?
Let's look at the scenario of getting the Ace first as card 1 and the face card or Ten positive expected value blackjack card 2.
The next card has to be a face card or a Ten.
How many face cards are in the pack?
And there are four Tens in the pack.
The size of the pack has changed since we took card 1 out!
There are now only 51 cards in the pack.
And so the probability of getting a face card or a Ten as card 2 is 16 out of 51.
https://chakefashion.com/blackjack/mgm-blackjack-tournament.html are called dependent events since the first outcome affected the second outcome.
Dependent events are dependent on each other since the outcome of one affects the outcome of the other.
Note, we multiplied the fractions because we want the probability of one see more AND another event.
In probability calculations, AND is a message to multiply.
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So what about the probability of getting the face card or Ten first and then the Ace?
Well, if we examine closely, this will be the same probability even though the numbers are reversed.
This is shown in the completed table below.
We must consider both scenarios since both are possible.
In other words, when James is dealt two cards from a standard deck of 52 cards, assuming positive expected value blackjack other cards have been taken, he will get the combination of an Ace and a face card or a Ten about 4.
And this means that he will not get this winning positive expected value blackjack 100 - 4.
As a probability this is 0.
Note, we switched from using fractions to decimals.
This is perfectly fine as long as we do not round too much.
So what about the expected value of the game?
To calculate the expected value, we multiply the values of each scenario by its probability.
So James can expect to have a gain of 0.
This is summarized in the table below.
Since in most games cards are dealt and not replaced, the probabilities calculated were examples of dependent events, where the outcome of one event, in this case a card, affects the outcome of another event, or the next card.
To calculate these probabilities, we separated each card as an event.
For example, when dealt two cards from a standard deck of 52 cards, the probability of getting two Aces was calculated positive expected value blackjack 4 out of 52 for the first Ace multiplied by 3 out of 51 for the second Ace.
Using this method, we calculated the probability of getting 21 in the game of blackjack.
We broke this down as getting an Ace first and then a face card or Ten OR getting a face card or Ten first and then the Ace.
Since there were several ways to get this combination, we had to consider each option and then add the probabilities.
Finally, we used the probability to calculate the expected value for a game in blackjack.
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Blackjack: Finding Expected Values of Games of Chance with Cards - Video & Lesson Transcript | chakefashion.com
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In the game of blackjack, the odds of winning each hand are slightly less than 50 percent.
As you play an infinite amount of hands, you would always lose money because you would win less than 50 percent of the time.
By this rationale, wouldn't your highest odds positive expected value blackjack winning be if you only played one game?
It would be even better not to play at all, but in that case the chance that you win is of course zero.
Betting a lesser amount each time does not change the odds of positive expected value blackjack a single hand, but it does lower the variation of your return.
In other words, the probability that you end up in the plus gets lower the more bets you make.
NB: The above is assuming you bet the same amount multiple times, e.
But there are other strategies, for instancethat uses Martingales.
As you play more and more games, although it seems like you would eventually win, if you lose say the 12th game positive expected value blackjack a row, you will have catastrophic losses which seem like they would balance out your winnings.
Otherwise, eventually, you will blow up.
I mentioned that approach because, if you're goal is to merely make a winning i.
Note that probabilities of winning fluctuate as cards are constantly being dealt, due to ratio of high cards good to low cards bad remaining in the deck fluctuates.
The study of these changing probabilities is what lead to the birth of portable blackjack table counting.
If one becomes a skilled counter, they can this web page higher bets during stages in which the player has the probabilistic advantage over the casino.
If played correctly, card counters generate a positive EV using strategic betting, and actually generate a profit over a long period of time.
The expected value changes on a per hand basis and depends on more than one factor.
I assume what you're referring to is the basic strategy for Blackjack having a negative EV in a typically available variant of Blackjack.
Here's the first rub, the composition of remaining cards is dependent on the cards that are already positive expected value blackjack />Imagine a standard deck consisting of 52 cards with each card being played in a game of Blackjack with the exception of an Ace of spades, king of diamonds, 10 positive expected value blackjack clubs, and a jack of hearts.
Let's assume you've been wagering 10 dollars per hand up to this point and for arguments sake have played a total of 20 hands.
Unfortunately, you've lost all 20 hands thus far.
You're down 200 dollars.
Here's the second rub, a Blackjack pays the player 1.
This means if you decide to gamble the remaining 1,000 dollars on your next hand that you're only liable to lose 1,000 dollars while you could also possibly win 1,500 dollars.
This is the equalizer in this game; hence the name Blackjack!
The certainty is that either you or the dealer will have a Blackjack.
You can calculated your EV here simply as.
In the example I've outlined you can see a few of the basic dynamics of the game in action.
Number 1, the final 4 cards in this example are dependent on the previous 48 cards played.
The composition of the four remaining cards is knowable even if the order isn't.
Number 2, your EV is affected by the particular rules of the game in this example the fact that a Blackjack results in a 1.
Number 3, your EV is affected by the initial value of the wager.
Your initial visit web page stated an infinite number of hands, but I'm assuming there wouldn't be an infinite number of decks since you can play an infinite amount of hands with only one deck.
Please edit and use to properly format math expressions.
Provide details and share your minimum blackjack mohegan sun />Use MathJax to format equations.
To learn more, see our.

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How to win at blackjack (21) with gambling expert Michael "Wizard of Odds" Shackleford

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Expected Returns in Infinite-Deck Blackjack
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Expected Value - Casino Review Squad
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That is because most casino games by nature have a negative expectation for the player.
This means that for every wagered that is made on the game; machine or table game, gives back some amount less than the wagered amount over time.
If 1 how to a table players wager 1 dollar and, one player wins 500K than the casino makes a profit of 500K and an average loss of 50 cents per wager is perceived.
In slot machines the advertised pay back is often in the neighborhood of 97-99%.
This is over the entire life of the machine where a machine may collect 100s of millions of dollars in action over its lifetime.
Table games are slightly different because some include a skill component and the % advantage the casino has varies from player to player.
But the same general principle applies.
This article is an in depth analysis of the mathematics of casino gaming.
The information presented here is valid for play as well as online play.
However; the Blackjack software programs that online casinos use include all of the cards in every new round of play.
The analysis will apply to the game of Blackjack.
Blackjack is a game of dynamic probabilities and shifting percentages.
But even though the percents are constantly changing, the cumulative percentage of the overall advantage remains constant.
This is achieved by taking the sum of the advantages over all possibilities.
For example, if one hand total has an advantage of positive 5% and another hand has a advantage of -6%, than the total advantage for the two hands is +1%.
When the reader understands this game it will https://chakefashion.com/blackjack/poker-kings-online.html easy to translate the concepts to any other casino game with a static advantage over the player.
GAMING STATISTICS Understanding the statistics involved in casino gaming is essential in evaluating the results.
This assertion is valid for both the player and the casinos.
The knowledge presented here is required to determine whether the results good or bad, lye in the statistical realm of possibility.
This is easily displayed in and Craps.
For example, when a coin is flipped there is a 50% chance that the outcome would positive expected value blackjack heads and a 50% chance that the outcome would be https://chakefashion.com/blackjack/blackjack-onlie.html />If the coin comes up 10 heads positive expected value blackjack a row the next flip would again have a 50% chance of coming up heads.
In blackjack what happens in the past directly affects what happens in the future.
Blackjack has memory, and the law of independent trials is not valid.
HOW BLACKJACK IS DIFFERENT?
In Blackjack each card has a specific value that it adds to, or subtracts from the initial advantage that the casino has over the player.
The initial advantage is derived from the rules of the game.
When enough of the right cards are dealt, the advantage swings in the players favor.
In blackjack when an Ace or 10 value card is dealt the casino advantage over the player increases.
When lower value cards are put in play 2-7 the casino advantage decreases, and when enough of those cards are dealt, the player has an advantage over the casino.
The percent advantage that the casino has over the player in blackjack or vice versa is not static.
There are many approaches that one can introduce to keep track of the shifting percentages.
This system assigns values of either: 1, -1 or 0 to the cards.
All cards 2-6 are assigned a value of 1 and all cards with a face value of 7, 8 and 9 have a value of 0.
All tens, face cards and Aces have a value of -1.
As the cards are dealt, the player adds the assigned values of the cards up, the summation of these cards after a round of blackjack is termed the running count.
In a positive running count, the value is normalized into an average of how many more high cards than low cards or low cards than high cards there are per deck.
To accomplish this, the player estimates how many decks are remaining and, the running count is then divided by how many decks remain, and this value is termed the true count.
For example, if a player has observed three decks of a six deck shoe being played, and the running count is a 15, that is fifteen more low cards 2-6 have been played than high cards 10s, face cards and aces through the first three decks of the shoe; the player then takes the running count 15 and divides by the decks remaining 3and this would give a true count of 5.
The player subtracts an offset: usually 1, which takes into account the casinos advantage at the start of the deck or shoe this offset is dependent upon several factors such as the rules of the game and the number of decks used and that number, is the number of units the player would wager on the next hand.
For every whole unit increment plus or minus observed in the true count, the player advantage increases by approximately 0.
When a preponderance of high cards remain, the this web page count is high and the player has an advantage over the casino.
This occurs for three reasons.
First, blackjacks are dealt more frequently and, since the payoff on a blackjack is asymmetric the player gets paid 3:2 on a player blackjack, but only loses his initial bet on a dealer blackjackthis benefits the player.
Usually a player would like to see a high card come out when doubling down or splitting, or the player exercises these options when the dealer is weak and a high card will cause the dealer to break a hit that would cause the dealer to go over 21.
These plays have a higher return when the remaining deck is rich in high cards.
Finally, the player may vary their strategy depending upon the composition of the remaining cards.
With a preponderance of high cards, the player can stand on more stiff hands totals of 12-16double down more often with strong totals cards equal to 9, 10 or 11 or, when the dealer is weak and susceptible to going over 21, the player may stand.
In contrast, the rules prohibit the dealer from varying their strategy.
The combination of these factors gives rise to situations where positive expected value blackjack is overcome and a skilled player has an advantage over the house.
CALCULATING THE WIN To determine what the amount that one expects to win over a given time either the casino or playerthree key pieces of information are required.
Number of Hands or Spins 3.
This leads to a zero sum game.
No winners no losers.
AM Blackjack advantage player WHERE I SHOULD BE?
When a coin is flipped 100 times the outcome is rarely exactly 50 heads and 50 tails.
Therefore we must introduce the concept of variance per number of events.
Variance is a measure of statistical dispersion.
To stick with the coin flip example, variance helps answer the question of whether or not it would it be surprising if we observed 45 heads out of 100 trials, or if we observed only 5 heads in 100 coin flips.
The answers are no and yes.
Getting only 5 heads in 100 coin flips would virtually prove you were flipping a weighted coin.
Understanding this concept is crucial for evaluating casino gaming results, since proper statistical analysis is required in order to determine if the results good or bad are a function of luck or skill.
It essentially determines whether or not a player or casino is being cheated.
Variance is usually discussed in terms of standard deviations, and that will be the case going forward in this discussion.
Standard deviation is equal to the square root of the variance.
The standard deviation for a series of trials positive expected value blackjack represented by the Greek letter 蟽 sigma and is equal to the standard deviation of each event multiplied by the square root of the number of events.
In the graphical representation the expected value is indicated by the Greek letter 碌 and the Standard Deviation is represented by the Greek letter 蟽.
According to the Gaussian distribution curve, there is just over a 68% chance that the result will be within one standard deviation, plus or minus of the expected value.
There is a just over a 95% chance that the results will be within two standard deviations, plus or minus of the expected value.
There is approximately a 99.
Applying this to the scenario of 100 flips of a coin we conclude that the standard deviation read article 100 trials is 10 times square root of 100 the standard deviation for a single trial which is 0.
In the coin flip scenario we expect the 50 of the 100 flips to land on heads and 50 of the 100 to land on tails.
Including the standard deviation concept of plus or minus 5, there is a 68% chance that for a 100 flips of a coin the heads side will come up between 45 and 55 times.
Applying the expected value and standard deviation equations to the betting unit of 100 dollars for a casino game with a 1% https://chakefashion.com/blackjack/stratgie-de-base-blackjack.html over the player the following results are computed.
As the number of events increase, the standard deviation gets smaller and smaller relative to the expected value.
At some point along the curve the expected value and standard deviations intersect.
At this point there is an 84% chance that the standard deviation will be less than the expected value.
This means there is an 84% chance that a profit will be made from that point forward and that your funds will never be depleted.
This intersection point for a 1% advantage is shown in the following graph.
FOR SIMPLICITY THE STANDARD DEVIATION VALUE IS ABSOLUTE Positive expected value blackjack intersect point between the expected value and standard deviation is just below 12,000 hands.
At 12,000 hands there is an 84% chance that the expected value will surpass the negative standard deviation, indicating the player will not zero out their bankroll 84% of the time.
Computing the same graph with 2% advantage the graph shows an equivalence point that is substantially lower.
This makes sense because casinos are playing the game 24 hours a day 7 days a week.
And because almost all players play to a disadvantage the casinos makes more and more money with less and less variance relative to their expected value.
In forth coming articles I will discuss positive expected value blackjack aspects of attacking casino games for profit.
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It is widely accepted that the typical Blackjack gambler who is trying to beat the game, but bases his game decisions on hunches, luck, or superstitions, is playing a game with about a four percent disadvantage. In other words, the expected value of the typical player is to lose 4 for every 100 he bets.


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Blackjack: Finding Expected Values of Games of Chance with Cards - Video & Lesson Transcript | chakefashion.com
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EV is an abbreviation for expected value.
Regardless if you play poker, and run blackjack or on source you will always have an expected value for the outcome of your play.
The meaning of EV and that is it good for?
The basic meaning of EV or expected value is the potential long-term equity in a specific situation.
It can be applied on all sorts of things, but are often used in context of gambling.
In poker, on the other hand, the situation is more dynamic.
All decisions you make will affect your results in some way.
Opposite to lottery, in poker you positive expected value blackjack actually achieve a positive expected value.
Not being aware of what your expectations are in a particular situation is a serious risk factor concerning your total result.
Positive EV means that you can expect a positive long term result in a given situation and negative EV is the opposite.
As a consequence, you want to bet as much as possible when you have a positive expectation and as little as possible when you have a negative expectation.
Your guidance to this cause is the odds.
Within every situation in poker there are odds of the possible positive expected value blackjack />The more you know about the odds, the more times can you get an advantage, or, as gamblers put it: getting the best of it.
Here we can see that you have a positive expected value and you will earn money in the long run on this bet.
In poker things will not be as simple as in this example.
But through knowledge and experience you can make estimations that serve your calculations.
You will for a certain win in the long run in situations with positive EV in poker, and by short terms you will maybe win.
The variance is, however, big from a short perspective and can be.
To always follow an approach that yields good winning chances is easy to formulate in words, but much more difficult to make a practice of in reality.
This is because poker not only consist of mathematics and strategical elements, but also lots of psychology.
The EV perspective is the right way to approach gambling, including poker.
Try to always think: "Do I have a positive EV or not?
This can be applied to everything from table selection to a single call decision.
In abstract terms, EV is everything in poker.
Risk aversion The risk aversion differ between people.
Whereas some positive expected value blackjack like the idea to gamble that much, others willingly do just that provided that the positive expected value blackjack are favorable.
People with high risk aversion are simply not suitable for a game such as poker in which you must risk something to get something.
Even if the gamble have a positive outcome in the long run some, not everyone likes the idea of a possible short run loss, especially if lots of money is on stake.
this web page advantage player, a gambler looking for a mathematical edge to exploit before wagering on something, will accept taking big risks as long the outcome seems to be positive in the see more run and that his bankroll can tolerate a loss.
By only gamble in situations with minor risks, the potential winning prospect decrease.
He wants to win immediately.
Sure, sometimes it's correct to protect the hand, but it's better to do positive expected value blackjack with calculated value bets than over bets.